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EVOLUTIONARY GAMING STUDY ON ECOLOGICAL COMPENSATION OF BI-DIRECTIONAL WATER FOOTPRINT IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA
ZHU Zhiming, YAO Ting, GUO Lingli
Resources & Industries
2022, 24 (2):
54-63.
DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210803.001
A quality integrated development of Yangtze River Delta needs attention on its ecological cultural construction, but it faces water shortage and worsening water ecological environmental issues. Trans-regional water resource protection can not be effectively performed due to its externality of water resource as a public affair, which makes ecological compensation of water resource a key point in reaching a co-integrated development in Yangtze River Delta. This paper uses water footprint theory to establish a standard measuring model of 2008 to 2017 bidirectional water footprint ecological compensation of Yangtze River Delta, and constructs an evolutionary gaming model based on central-governmental constraining-stimulating mechanism to reach an optimal stable balanced strategy. Yangtze River Delta is simulated as a water importing area with rising imports and consumption during the decade at yearly average consumption up to 158.62 billion cubic meters, in actual water use most by agricultural water footprint, while trading water footprint is rising at an uneven rate. Jiangsu contributes the most in simulated water use, followed by Anhui, Zhejiang and Shanghai. Its ecological compensation amounts shows a climbing tendency. Jiangsu gets the most at a yearly RMB9.222 billion, followed by Zhejiang, Anhui and Shanghai, but Jiangsu has a lowest compensation to input ratio at 63%, and Shanghai is the highest at 78%. After constraining-stimulating mechanism is in place, Yangtze River Delta can reach an optimal balanced protection and compensation strategy if central governmental sum of fines and stimulus is higher than its ecological compensation amounts on either defaults, and if the sum is higher than two times of opportunity cost, and less than its compensation amounts on both defaults, Zhejiang seats on top in stimulating and punishing range changes in the decade.
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